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Can the National Health Service (NHS) Survive the ‘Perfect Winter Storm’ Ahead?

By Jemima Harrison

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS England’s national medical director, claimed that as of November 24th: “the first weekly data this year shows the considerable pressure faced by staff, before we enter what is likely to be the NHS’ most challenging winter ever.” As no stranger to the NHS, and a mother who has a neurological disorder, I start to wonder with each and every winter Britain faces, whether this will be the ‘most challenging winter ever.’

As of 2016, Britons named the NHS the Pride of Britain, winning by a sizeable margin against other integral elements of British culture and life such as its Monarchy, history, landscapes and architecture. Winding back the clocks to March 2020, Prime Minister, Boris Johnson even framed the national instruction to: ‘Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives,’ around defending the beloved Service. I am sure we all remember congregating with our neighbours to clap for the NHS and admire the exceptional efforts of its staff. The NHS, for a long time, has been an honoured and cherished institution embedded into British life. However, I do start to wonder how far the NHS has to be stretched before the British public lose faith, and patience, in the once world-class institution.

"Unsurprisingly, health chiefs say this crisis is leading to deaths, both in and out of A&E."

So, why will this year be the year that the NHS will be facing ‘the most challenging winter ever’? The weekly NHS snapshot report revealed that almost a third of patients arriving at hospitals by ambulance are waiting at least 30 minutes to be handed over to A&E teams. Furthermore, approximately 15% of ambulance handovers last week – equivalent to 11,389 patients – were delayed by more than an hour.

Ambulances

Unsurprisingly, health chiefs say this crisis is leading to deaths, both in and out of A&E. This is because patients who are delayed from entering A&E are prevented from getting the emergency care they need, and are being forced to wait in the back of ambulances. The destructive cycle continues, as crews are stuck and therefore unable to respond to patients who need care out in the community, meaning ambulance waiting times are increased, leading to further preventable deaths. When my mother was first admitted to hospital in 2016, the ambulance arrived at our house within a matter of minutes, and she was receiving the emergency care she needed within the hour. This tremendously decreased the anxiety, stress, and deep concern our family felt - which can only be tended to by knowing your relative is in safe hands. If my mother was to be admitted in the current year, the evidence suggests her experience may have been incredibly different. I can only begin to imagine the doubt patients and their families feel regarding the care the NHS is providing.

 

"I can't credit the increasing flu admissions as a scapegoat."

Indeed, evidence for this is backed up by the fact that complaints about primary care, ranging from GP and dental practises, have increased by 39.4% to 120,064 between 2021-2022 according to NHS Digital Figures. Causes for complaint have included communication, clinical treatment and staff attitude, behaviour, or values. All the evidence suggests that Professor Powis has hit the nail on the head: this is most ‘likely to be the NHS’most challenging winter ever.

But I can't credit the increasing flu admissions as a scapegoat. Although it is true that there was an average of 344 patients emerging each day in hospitals in England with the flu in November, more than ten times the number at the beginning of last year, I believe the real problem lies in the underfunding of the NHS. The connection seems simple: fund the NHS,meaning no more ‘most challenging winter ever’ that seemingly occurs every year.

Nurse protesting

A new NHS Confederation analysis found that the Health Service is facing real-term cuts in funding of between £4 billion and £9.4 billion this year alone. This is reflected in the dissatisfaction of NHS staff. The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) said that despite this year's pay award of £1,400, experienced nurses were 20% worse off in real terms due to these awards being successively below inflation since 2010. The College’sGeneral Secretary Pat Cullen stated: “Nursing is standing up for the profession and their patients. We've had enough of being taken for granted and being unable to provide the care patients deserve.” Members of the RCN in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will stage their biggest-ever walkout on the 15th and 20th of December, with 100,000 nurses walking out over disputes over pay. The Scottish government has made a separate day offer, a decision with which perhaps the English, Welsh and Northern Irish governments ought to follow suit.

Similarly, on Wednesday the 30th, only six days after Powis’ statement, 10,000 ambulance workers have also voted to strike in England and Wales, due to the government’s meagre 4% pay award which the GMB has described as another ‘massive real terms pay cut.’ Rachel Harrison, the Ambulance Union’s National Secretary stated: “Ambulance workers – like other NHS workers – are on their knees.” This industrial action is set to take place before Christmas.

"Staff and patients are frustrated - and it all comes down to underfunding."

The Union strikes reflect the turmoil that the NHS is facing. With 10 times the flu admissions in hospitals, combatted by dispirited and downtrodden staff who are being severely unpaid for extremely hard work, it does not seem the NHS can continue in this state for much longer. The government is responsible for the fall of Britain’s most prized institution: staff and patients are frustrated - and it all comes down to underfunding.A ‘Perfect Winter Storm’ indeed.

Public Protests

As British citizens, we must support the NHS and its representatives’ pleas to receive adequate funding. The frustration the public may be feeling towards delays, strikes and a possible decrease in quality from our NHS, should be redirected towards the government. The pride of Britain, our NHS, should not have to face a ‘perfect winter storm’ in the first place – there can be no doubt that with the proper funding, the NHS and its healthcare heroes would flourish and thrive as they have historically. But under current pretences, this is not possible. This is why, now more than ever, it is vital to support our NHS so the British community and our loved ones can access the healthcare which we have perhaps taken for granted for so long.